SUNConferences, 29th Annual Conference of SAIIE

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ANALYSIS OF DEMAND FORECASTING STRATEGIES AND PRACTICES FOR EMPTY RAIL WAGONS: A SOUTH AFRICAN CASE STUDY.
Robert Pokote Mutyavavire, Meshack Meshael Mazibuko

Last modified: 2018-10-09

Abstract


Optimized demand management strategies and associated forecasting approaches make critically important contributions towards enhanced customer demand satisfaction and overall business sustainability.
In this paper we interrogate current empty rail wagon demand forecasting practices in the Southern African rail industry and present inadequacies noted. We further analyze case company time series demand data for empty wagons over a period of four years.  A quantitative forecasting model based on the Holts-Winters method is developed and tested against real life data. Good to reasonable forecast results are recorded for forecast periods up to twelve months with the best forecasts recorded for the six to twelve months’ forecast period.


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