SUNConferences, Computers and Industrial Engineering 42

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A System Dynamic Approach to Uncertainty in Bridging Technology Interaction
Leon Pretorius, Jan-Harm Christiaan Pretorius

Last modified: 2012-06-18

Abstract


This paper is an extension of previous research on the simulation of three technologies that interact in competition. Technology is considered as a result of innovation, a rate dependant process. Technology growth patterns can be traced in a number of ways. One interesting way that has been recently used very effectively is using bibliometrics as a data source for technology. In this paper the technology system is treated as a coupled system where the interacting dynamics is described by the Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. The uncertainty in the interaction of the bridging technology with the mature defending technology and the newly introduced attacking technology is addressed in this research using a Monte Carlo multivariate simulation technique and a system dynamics approach. The research method is exploratory and case based a method that has been established as useful especially early on in research. Some exploration into cyclic behaviour of a modified version of the three technology system is also attempted.


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